A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
